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The Average Lake Oswego/West Linn Homeowner Loses $70,500 of Equity! 

5-18-2012

Wait a minute, Pohl Real Estate just published an article in March that said the Average values in NW Washington County increased by $53,500, how can this be, I thought the Portland Market was better insulated from this depreciation?

When it comes to analyzing statistics the answer is always "yes" because there are so many different variables one can consider.

Here are the facts to back up my initial statement that shows how Lake Oswego homeowners lost $70,500.

Average Sales Price in Lake Oswego/West Linn ending April 30, 2012 = $361,000
Average Sales Price in Lake Oswego/West Linn ending April 30, 2011 = $431,500

Total Value Lost from April 2011-April 2012 = $-70,500, or -19.5%

When you look at real estate locally in a specific area you need to look at the nitty gritty. Usually in the summer months the market goes up and in the winter months the market goes down. This variation is very normal and dependably cyclical.

Another statistical factor and a more broad factor of the overall Lake Oswego/West Linn market is the Average Sale Price Percentage Change. This factor calculates the Averages Sales Price every month over an entire year and compares that to the Average Sales Price every month over an entire year from the previous year. The current Average Sales Price Percentage Change from May 2010-May 2011 compared to May 2009- May 2010 is 0.8%. This means that the rolling Average sales price stayed relatively flat or increased a little bit in the Lake Oswego/West Linn market, which completely contradicts this -19.5% loss of value. The Average Sales Price percent change is a much broader way of calculating averages. Just like the price might be down $-70,500 from April to April it could also be up $50,000 from May to May which weighs on an average.

The quick answer is never trust what a statistic says because there are so many more statistics to consider when evaluating home values.


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