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Portland, Oregon Suburbs Statistical Findings

7-1-2012

We are halfway through the year and I just wanted to provide a little reflection of how the Portland real estate market is performing along with which areas in Portland stand out. Currently we have the lowest inventory of homes available for sale since June of 2007 or 7 years.

What does this mean exactly you ask? It means that very little homes available causes people to pay more and allows for a shorter sales cycle. People end up paying higher prices because with no competition for very little competition you have multiple people fighting for the same home which causes them to pay in many cases over asking price in order to get it. When they pay over asking price it signals other homeowners/sellers to price their homes higher thus increasing the cost of a home. Here we have covered supply now let's talk about demand.

The demand for homes is also very high. We still have historically bottomed out interest rates around 3.5% for a 30 year fixed and to further incentivise people they are expected to increase this year for the first time in a few years. As a result of this demand you see the time on market for the entire Portland market drop to 85 days. To share with you how low this is in February of 2009 the market time was 153 days or approximately 5 months before there was an accepted offer on a home. Another significant factor relating to the increased demand is appreciation in home prices. The current rolling average sales price percent change (measures the rolling average sales price from the last 12 months and compares it to the rolling average sales price of the previous 12 months) is +9.8%. Last year this same time the rolling average sales price percent change was -3.6%. That is a 13.4% difference in just one year.

  • Ok which suburbs in Portland stand out with the greatest appreciation? When looking at the rolling average sales price percent change these areas had the sharpest increases: Northeast Portland 12.1%, SE Portland 13.3%, Lake Oswego 8.1%, North Portland 8.6%, West Portland 9.7%, Beaverton 10%, and Hillsboro 9.6%.
  • As of the last report ending May 2013 every area of Portland had sharp decreases in home supply levels. Gresham was the lowest at -15% and Beaverton was the highest at -53% decrease in supply levels from May 2012- May 2013; the average was -39%.
  • When looking at the total time it takes to sell a home, North Portland leads the way at 48 days followed by Beaverton at 51 days and Southeast Portland at 56 days. These are the hottest suburbs in Portland right now. The coolest suburbs are Oregon City 124 days, Milwaukie at 113 days, and Gresham at 106 days. Beaverton, West Portland & Lake Oswego were the largest movers in the decrease of time it takes to get an accepted offer, each of these areas decreased their marketing time by -63, -67, and -59 days respectively.
  • As it relates to closed sales. Oregon City had a 60% increase in closed sales from 2012 to 2013. The rest of the suburbs increased on average of 28%.
  • When looking at pricing strictly from May 2012 to May 2013, the entire Portland market increased on average of $35,500. If you purchased a home in 2011 or 2012 you are loving this statistic.

Anytime the real estate market deals with historical highs and lows it makes it an exciting environment to be around. This should make for a very fun rest of the year.



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